WAKING TO THE RISK
The risk of avian flu.
By Don Durfee

“All the scientific evidence points to the conclusion that it’s coming and that it’s overdue.” Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist at Hong Kong University, is referring to the next influenza pandemic. When it does arrive, the pandemic could be catastrophic. Leung, who was part of the team that led the scientific response to the SARs epidemic, estimates that three quarters of all people living in major population centers will be infected during the first year after the pandemic virus emerges. About 40% will show signs of illness, and a small proportion will require hospitalization or die. And that could be a staggering number: a recent study predicts that the next pandemic could claim as many as 62m lives worldwide.

Asian companies appear to be underestimating the danger. A new survey of 62 organizations in Asia conducted by Marsh, a risk consulting firm, found that only 21% have continuity plans and just 16% believe a pandemic is a high-likelihood event. “The results suggest a sense of complacency,” says James O’Brien, a principal with The Albright Group, a consulting firm founded by former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright.

The risk is multifaceted. Employees would become infected. Customers could stop buying. Quarantines and travel restrictions could halt operations, strand executives, and cut off supplies. Public services could become erratic. The key to preparation, says Gary Lynch, who runs Marsh’s national continuity risk management practice, is to prioritize. Which of a company’s products or services matter most? CFOs should then think through all of the ways a pandemic would affect their delivery. “You need to look at the flow of goods, and all the critical dependencies, including public sector services such as energy and communication,” says Lynch.